Sunday, March 12, 2006

No chance in Hell...or anywhere else for that matter.

At times we use a coin toss to make a decision, such as a football game, leaving the toss to "chance". Provided that the coin doesn't land on its side, what is the probability that a coin will land on tails? Given enough coin tosses averaged together, fifty percent. But for a single throw, it is impossible to predict the results. But is there really any chance involved? Supposing we had a vacuum sealed room with no air, hence no air friction, and a device that would launch a coin in to the air at the exact same speed, height, and angle, with the coin in the exact same position on the launcher. If we could so duplicate the initial starting conditions of the coin toss, with nothing to interfere, the odds that the coin would land on the same side every single time would be 100%. The problem with predicting a coin toss is that we cannot duplicate/know the initial starting conditions exactly, so we leave the results to "chance". There really is no "chance" -in the sense of actually being random- involved at all. Chance is simply a word we use to describe our ignorance, that we cannot know all of the complexities involved, nor are we able to control what we know to a high enough degree as to allow us to make accurate predictions.

This is why we cannot predict the weather far into the future. With all of our powerful radars and other equipment, it is impossible to know exactly the weather conditions at any given moment, nor to understand all of the minute events occurring throughout our galaxy that could impact our planet. Such small differences between what we measure and what the real conditions are, cause our weather predictions to drastically differ from reality over a long enough period of time. Unpredictable systems, like the weather, are called chaotic, perhaps even random, because they don't follow any of our models/predictions, but they are not really. We simply do not know everything, hence they appear random. But there is nothing random. There is no chance.

The last century spawned a new field of science called Quantum Physics/Quantum Mechanics which (simplified) deals with the study of atoms and their subatomic particles. Unfortunately for such study, it is impossible to know both the exact momentum and location of a particle at the same instant. This is known as Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. We cannot explain what causes certain phenomena to happen at the atomic level, because it is impossible to know exactly what is happening at any given moment. This impossibility is built into the system, so let me state it again: we don't know what causes some effects. Some have made a leap of logic to say that since we don't know what is causing some effect, that NOTHING is causing the effect. This is illogical and irrational. The Law of Cause and Effect is that all effects must have a cause. It is true simply by definition. (Aside: Someone might object, saying I'm not a quantum physicist, which I'm not. Though I've taken a few classes, I am in no position to argue the results of their work. But I can evaluate the truth claims they make about those results.)

But when a teacher stands in front of a class and tells the students that 18-20 Billion years ago "nothing" exploded it is accepted as fact. Yet this is just as illogical and irrational. All effects must have a cause. So, the scientist says, it was caused by chance, a probability. But chance does not have any power (let alone ultimate power), nor does it have any being; it is simply a description of systems we do not understand. If nothing existed, there is no system to predict. "Ex nilhilo nihil fit" - Nothing comes from nothing. For something to create itself it would have to exist before it exists. Might as well stick the side of your finger to your lips and flail it up and down. This is nonsense, irrational, and it is not science.

And if at this point you find yourself believing that nothing exploded and produced everything, and that you don't believe in cause and effect, please tell the world. You will save us all the time from having to convince the world you are being irrational by telling them this yourself. :)

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